Our shape-shifting Chaos Theory Red Blend has had a long, storied evolution. Now it comes of age.
Chaos Theory is an offshoot of Brown Estate, one of Napa Valley’s premiere Zinfandel producers, founded in 1996 by siblings Deneen, David, and Coral Brown. The name, bestowed by David — who in addition to being Brown Estate’s winemaker, studied physics and chemistry in college and is a hobbyist astronomer — derives from the realms of science and math, both of which figure prominently in his farming and winemaking activities. Chaos Theory is an apt homage to the family’s journey in the wine industry, which has been characterized by a rollercoaster of fluctuating conditions that from year to year make leaps of faith a form of currency. For the Browns, the principle itself goes specifically to the phenomenon of self-organization in the face of random events, very much the order of the day when Mother Nature is in the mix.
Known to some devotees by its moniker #wineothetimes, Chaos Theory will mark its 20th bottling with the 2024 vintage.
The Brown family established their footprint in the Napa Valley in 1980 when parents Bassett and Marcela purchased a dilapidated homestead and abandoned walnut orchard in the Chiles Valley district nine miles up the hill east from Rutherford. They began planting vineyards in the early 80s and for the better part of a decade sold fruit to an array of esteemed producers. In the early 90s their children took over the farming and grape sales, and soon new value propositions came to light. After watching several masters at work with Brown fruit, in 1995 David made his first experimental batch of “home brew” wine (code name: Phat Vine) and a few years later the family bottled their “vintage no. 1” 1996 Napa Valley Zinfandel. In January 2000 they made their public debut at the annual Zinfandel Advocates & Producers (ZAP) Grand Tasting at San Francisco’s Fort Mason — then the largest single varietal wine tasting event in the world. Buoyed by a simultaneous feature in Wine Spectator, the Browns were warmly received by industry veterans and consumers alike. Calendar year 2000 closed with Robert M. Parker, Jr. reviewing the 1997 and 1998 vintages of Brown Zin, however his opening line reflected what might be described as the family’s baptism by chaos: In June 2000, a warehouse fire had destroyed all of their inventory (1996-1998 vintages).
The Browns turned a weekend project into an outstanding Napa Valley Zinfandel.
— Wine Spectator, 01/31/00
These reviews are of academic interest only since nearly all of Brown Estate’s inventory was lost
in the tragic fire that swept through part of the Rombauer winery and storage facility.
— The Wine Advocate, 12/23/00
Six years later, the Browns participated in their first Premiere Napa Valley trade auction — benefiting the Napa Valley Vintners — entering a one-off blend comprised of 80% estate grown Cabernet Sauvignon + 20% estate grown Zinfandel (vintage 2004). At the time, marrying these two varietals was considered highly unconventional owing to Zin not ranking among the “noble” grapes. The only one of its kind at that year’s PNV X (the event’s tenth year, Brown’s eleventh), the family’s Lot No. 138 made a splash. Their half-barrel, approximately 12 cases, sold for $18,000. [They would reprise the same blend for PNV 11, bringing in $23,000.] Energized by their inaugural PNV auction result and accompanying buzz, that fall they named and released to their wine club the first official bottling of Chaos Theory under the Brown Estate label (pictured above). For its first four vintages, Chaos Theory was an estate-grown Cab/Zin blend. In 2008, a chaotic growing season ironically knocked Chaos Theory off the production schedule due to low yields — it remains the lone skipped vintage.
The years 2009 to 2013 marked a time of both stability and transition for Chaos Theory. After skipping the 2008 vintage due to short fruit supplies, for 2009 the blend returned at 60% Zinfandel + 40% Cabernet Sauvignon, and subsequently held steady from 2010 through 2013 at 60% Zinfandel + 35% Cabernet Sauvignon + 5% Petite Sirah. This was the final era of strictly estate-grown fruit in what would become the bestselling SKU by volume in the Brown Estate family of wines. With its popularity growing, the Browns updated Chaos Theory’s label to incorporate a matrix code backdrop and embedded message: IN VINO VERITAS, IN CHAOS ORDER. This tagline, which also graces the back of the bottle, has become a rallying cry of sorts as the family has stayed the course on their wine journey — which they’ve described as “a constant adventure that reminds us year in and year out that no matter how random or chaotic things may seem, amidst the mayhem there is reason if not always rhyme... and from each season, great wine.” The matrix code label made its first appearance on 2011 magnum bottles and debuted on standard bottles with the 2013 vintage.
The 2014 vintage marked Chaos Theory’s 10th bottling, and the first time it would include non-estate fruit in the form of Merlot from a nearby property in Brown Estate’s home AVA, Chiles Valley. Merlot would remain a consistent component through the 2019 vintage, representing a factor of as low as 15% to as high as 50% over that six-year stretch. (It would return for 2022.) Other callouts for this era are the 2018 vintage, the lone bottling of Chaos Theory to feature Petite Sirah as its lead component; the conversion of standard bottles to screen printed label for the 2015 vintage; and, most significantly, it encompasses the last production cycle to be unaffected by the wildfires of 2020, which impacted Brown Estate directly.
A potent blend, with expressive blackberry, tar, and grilled anise aromas and concentrated yet polished raspberry and smoky cracked pepper flavors. (2014 vintage, 91 points)
— Wine Spectator, 11/15/17
This epoch in Chaos Theory’s storied evolution saw its most chaotic production cycles — 2019 through 2021 all were impacted in different ways by the 2020 wildfire season. The 2019 vintage, intended to be the last containing Brown Estate fruit, was bottled in November 2020, by which time all the world was straining under the weight of Covid-19, widespread social justice stirrings, and in some quarters, devastating wildfires. In Northern California the 2020 fire season wreaked havoc on the wine industry. Brown Estate sustained relatively minor vineyard damage across the entire property, with perimeter rows lost from several blocks and the bulk of their hillside Cabernet Sauvignon destroyed. Miraculously, apart from a small wooden garage that burned to the ground, no structures were damaged... and thankfully no humans harmed. Nerves, however, were well-rattled, that year’s grape crop and available fruit severely impacted, and ongoing insurance claim skirmishes posed tremendous distractions during post-harvest winemaking. That “perfect storm,” along with the new reality of fire season becoming a near year-round threat thanks to climate crises, spurred the Browns to recalibrate their bottling schedule commencing in calendar year 2021; their traditional fall timeline was moved up to summer so as not to be contending with both harvest and bottling should wildfires strike in fall.
In June 2021, an unprecedented three-day Chaos Theory bottling took place at Brown Estate which saw completion of a second lot from the 2019 vintage (officially, 2019 Lot 2) along with a commemorative 2020 vintage in homage to the single most challenging and indeed chaotic year in Brown Estate’s then 25-year history. The former, comprised of 55% Cabernet Franc (non-estate) + 35% Cabernet Sauvignon (estate) + 10% Zinfandel (non-estate), was produced to bridge wholesale markets through what would have been the 2020 vintage sales cycle. The 2020 vintage, comprised of 50% Zinfandel + 20.5% Merlot + 17.5% Cabernet Franc + 12% Sangiovese (all non-estate), was reserved exclusively for consumer direct sales in the family’s Brown Downtown Napa tasting room and online. This meant an accelerated schedule for the 2021 vintage, bottled in March 2022 and released to wholesale markets that May. At 5000 cases it was the largest production of Chaos Theory to date, and it was an anomalous blend of 50% Zinfandel (non-estate) + 40% Primitivo (estate) + 5% Petite Sirah (estate) + 5% Tempranillo (estate), the final vintage to include Brown Estate fruit. Its curious composition was born of residual wildfire impacts on both Napa Valley vineyard/fruit availability and continued challenging farming dynamics in that post-trauma growing season — both of these factors created a scarcity of fruit for the 2021 vintage.
The 2022 vintage — comprised of 37% Cabernet Franc + 21% Cabernet Sauvignon + 21% Zinfandel + 13% Merlot + 8% Barbera — was released to wholesale markets in May 2024 and marks Chaos Theory’s coming of age as both a blend and a brand. Following two very topsy-turvy calendar years that disrupted three production cycles, the Browns established a partnership with a longtime certified sustainable family farming operation in the Sonoma Valley appellation. With its fruit source now stabilized, and following a prolific run as a shape-shifter, Chaos Theory now has moved squarely in the direction of a Bordeaux-style blend. May 2024 also saw bottling of the 2023 vintage... and with harvest 2024 Chaos Theory’s vintage no. 20 will be underway. In chaos, order...
